The 2026 European Championships in Paris are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for women's swimming, particularly in the 4×100 medley relay. As an analyst and commentator, I find myself drawn to the Dutch team’s quest to end a 60-year drought—a narrative that feels both poignant and overdue. What makes this particularly fascinating is how the Netherlands, despite their historical absence from the podium, now find themselves at the center of the conversation, thanks largely to Marrit Steenbergen, Europe’s current swimming powerhouse.
From my perspective, Steenbergen’s versatility is the linchpin of the Dutch strategy. Personally, I think her ability to excel in both backstroke and freestyle gives the Netherlands a tactical edge that could make all the difference. One thing that immediately stands out is her recent lifetime best of 58.33 in backstroke—over a second faster than her teammate Maaike de Waard. This raises a deeper question: should Steenbergen lead off or anchor the relay? While her 51-point freestyle splits are impressive, placing her on backstroke could create a stronger overall balance, especially with Milou van Wijk as a capable anchor.
What many people don’t realize is that the Dutch team’s success isn’t just about Steenbergen. Tes Schouten and Tessa Giele are formidable in the breaststroke and butterfly legs, respectively. If Giele can replicate her 57-low form from last summer, this quartet becomes a force to be reckoned with. In my opinion, the Dutch have the most complete relay in the field—provided they get the lineup right.
Looking beyond the Netherlands, the Neutral Athletes B (formerly Russia) are a strong contender for silver. Their consistency across all four legs is impressive, with no swimmer over 22 years old. Alina Gaufutdinova’s backstroke and Daria Klepikova’s butterfly are particularly strong, though Evgenia Chikunova’s breaststroke could be their Achilles’ heel. What this really suggests is that while they lack a standout star, their depth and youth make them a reliable podium threat.
Great Britain, meanwhile, is a team with both promise and pitfalls. Lauren Cox’s backstroke performance will be critical—if she can’t match her lifetime best, it could derail their chances. However, Angharad Evans’ breaststroke is a game-changer, with splits that no other nation can match. The real wildcard is their back half: Keanna MacInnes on butterfly and Theodora Taylor on freestyle. If Taylor can replicate her Commonwealth Games split of 52.63, they could challenge for gold. But if Cox falters, they risk falling behind.
Italy, France, and Germany each have their own unique challenges. Italy’s lack of a sub-1:00 backstroker is a glaring weakness, while France’s Chloe Braun struggles to break 1:08 in breaststroke. Germany, on the other hand, has a strong middle with Anna Elendt and Angelina Kohler but lacks a clear anchor. These teams highlight a broader trend in European swimming: the struggle to field a balanced relay in an era dominated by specialists.
What makes this event so compelling is its unpredictability. The last four editions of the European Championships have crowned four different winners, with nine teams standing on the podium in the last three editions. This lack of consistency underscores the parity in the field and the slim margins that separate victory from defeat.
If you take a step back and think about it, the 4×100 medley relay is a microcosm of swimming’s broader dynamics: individual talent, team strategy, and the pressure of the moment. It’s not just about who’s fastest but who can execute under pressure. A detail that I find especially interesting is how small tactical decisions—like Steenbergen’s position in the Dutch lineup—can swing the outcome.
As for dark horses, Ireland’s entry is worth watching. With Mona McSharry on breaststroke and Ellen Walshe on butterfly, they have a real shot at making the final and potentially breaking their national record. It’s a reminder that in swimming, as in life, sometimes the underdog can surprise you.
In conclusion, the 2026 European Championships could mark the end of the Netherlands’ 60-year wait for gold in the women’s 4×100 medley relay. But beyond the Dutch narrative, this event is a testament to the depth and competitiveness of European swimming. Personally, I’m excited to see how these teams navigate the pressure, adapt their strategies, and write the next chapter in this sport’s history. It’s not just about winning—it’s about the stories, the sacrifices, and the moments that define careers.
